Malaysians weighing Australia: the forecast assumes 235,000 migrants a year, not a promise

News · 2026-09-28 · 4 min read

Every three years, the Australian government publishes a report that looks 40 years ahead. The latest Intergenerational Report (IGR) has a message that matters to anyone thinking about jobs in Australia for Malaysians: the country expects to keep growing largely because people choose to move there. Before you build a plan around it, though, it helps to know what the report says and what it does not.

Why the report leans on newcomers

Australians are having fewer children. The report projects the fertility rate falling to 1.34 births per woman by 2065–66, compared with 1.62 in the previous report. By the 2060s, deaths are expected to outnumber births for the first time.

Even so, the population is forecast to reach 39.3 million by 2065–66. The gap is filled by net overseas migration, which the report assumes will average 235,000 people a year over the long term. Recent migrants are also younger: the median age is around 26, against 38 for existing residents. That is one reason the working-age population, defined as people aged 15 to 64, is projected to keep growing.

An older country needs more hands

The median age is expected to rise from 38.6 to 45 by 2062–63. The number of Australians aged 65+ will nearly double, and those aged 85+ will nearly triple. More older people means more demand for health and aged care, and those roles need to be filled.

Reading the forecast as a job seeker

The report points to several areas where skills will matter. Think of them as directions to explore, not a list of certain vacancies.

Care. Nurses, aged care workers, allied health staff and disability support workers.
Energy. With a net zero target of 2050, there is a push into critical minerals, green hydrogen and green metals, which calls for engineers, technicians and tradespeople.
Digital change. The report says the effects of artificial intelligence are uncertain, but it will change which skills are most valued.
Services. Growth is expected to keep shifting towards services, which suits professional, technical and people-facing skills.

If you hold a Malaysian trade qualification such as the Malaysian Skills Certificate (Sijil Kemahiran Malaysia, SKM), remember that trades are usually assessed again abroad, for example through Trades Recognition Australia or VETASSESS. Only treat an assessment as a requirement when your visa pathway or employer says so.

The catch: the number is political

The 235,000 figure is an assumption. The Opposition and One Nation have both said they would aim for much lower migration levels if elected. Visa categories and priorities can change with governments and budgets, so a route that looks open today may look different later.

The economy tells a calmer story. Growth is expected to ease from about 3% a year to about 2%, yet the economy is projected to be more than twice its current size by 2065–66, with real per capita income up 55%. The report is also frank about pressures such as housing affordability for younger people.

What to do next

Check current rules, not old ones. Start with the skill occupation list on the Home Affairs website.
Start documents early. Prepare certified copies, plus English translations of any Bahasa Malaysia documents the visa rules ask for.
Plan the tests. If a visa or employer needs IELTS or PTE, book it early, even if you use English every day.
Police clearance. If a police certificate is requested, ask the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) for your Certificate of Good Conduct.

A long-range forecast cannot tell you whether a visa will be open when you apply. It can help you choose which skills to build while you prepare.

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