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Malaysians eyeing Australia: what the 225,000 migration target could mean for your visa

News · 2026-08-26 · 3 min read

If you are searching for jobs in Australia for Malaysians, you will keep meeting three letters: NOM. Net Overseas Migration is the figure every Australian party now quotes. It affects how governments talk about student, skilled and working holiday visas, so it is worth understanding before you plan.

How NOM is worked out

NOM is the number of people who arrive in Australia and stay at least a year, minus those who leave to settle abroad. Australia uses a 12/16-month rule: you count if you spend 12 months in Australia within any 16-month window, even if the time is split across several trips. A student who goes home for a month and then returns is still counted.

NOM is not a figure about visa holders alone. It also includes returning Australian citizens and permanent residents, and New Zealanders moving across the Tasman. Diplomats and their families are left out. Short-term workers under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) program may or may not count, depending on how long their placement lasts.

Where the numbers stand

NOM was roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025. That is well down from the post-pandemic high of around 556,000 in 2023, but still above what the government projected. Treasury expects a fall to 225,000 by the 2027–28 financial year, although its forecasts have undershot the real figure in recent years.

Notice that returning citizens and New Zealanders make up a big share. Governments cannot steer them with visa policy, which is one reason the target is so hard to hit.

What each party is promising

• One Nation: a NOM target of 130,000, with cuts to graduate visas, student numbers and the skilled migration list. Its own messaging has not always been consistent.
• The Coalition: no firm figure yet. It links any cap to housing construction, with a number under 200,000 suggested. One senator floated 180,000 aimed at working holiday, student and some skilled visas, and other figures distanced themselves from that, because regional employers depend on working holiday-makers for seasonal labour.
• Labor: a working target of 225,000 by 2028, with the focus on enforcement, meaning temporary visa holders leave when their visas end, and slower processing for working holiday and skilled applications meanwhile.

Practical steps from Malaysia

The headline number matters less than the visa streams being singled out: student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled list. Processing times, eligibility rules and caps in those streams are more likely to move soon than family or humanitarian intake. Treat any announced target as a direction, not a promise.

So prepare early. Keep certified copies of your documents, with English translations of anything in Bahasa Malaysia where the visa rules ask for them. If your trade certificate is a Malaysian Skills Certificate (SKM), expect it to be assessed again abroad. Book IELTS or PTE if your visa or employer needs one, and order your police clearance from the Royal Malaysia Police (PDRM) only when a police certificate is requested. For official visa information, use the Home Affairs visa listing.

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